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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still